Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Human Behaviour

In light of recent revelations of wholesale spying on American citizens by the NSA and GCHQ, significant attention has focused not only on how much data is being collected and under what authority it was being collected in the first place, but on the potential uses of that crucial private information by the agents of the surveillance state.

Previously data mining was the norm. Governments would accumulate as much data as possible just in case they needed to refer to it as evidence for a case which they were already building. However as the new paradigm of predictive analytics takes over, the data (and the algorithms which make sense of it) will take the primary role, with computers highlighting any ‘potential’ threat and referring it on to human resources (or possibly more machines) to deal with.

Using predictive analytics, government, law enforcement, hospitals, and businesses can track and predict the behaviour of everyone, everywhere. With this technology, computers literally learn from data how to predict the future behaviour of individuals. Predictive analytics is the science that turns raw data into useful information.

This data embodies a priceless collection of experience from which to learn. Every medical procedure, credit application, Facebook post, movie recommendation, spammy email, and purchase of any kind (each positive or negative outcome, each successful or failed event or transaction) is encoded as data and warehoused. The state has itself a genuine gold mine. But data isn’t the gold — data in its raw form is boring crud. The gold is what’s discovered therein. And with the new knowledge gained, prediction becomes possible.

Predictive analytics marks a progression from simply identifying patterns to making predictions based on patterns. Computerworld (2006) defined predictive analytics as “the branch of data mining concerned with forecasting probabilities.” From this definition we see that predictive analytics is a concept that is more uniquely forward-looking, and when personal information is the raw data, predictive analytics is the process attempting to forecast our future behaviours or intentions.

SAS, one of the world’s largest business analytics companies, says predictive analytics is about “revealing previously unseen patterns, sentiments and relationships” (emphasis added). So where data mining describes the exploratory process of finding patterns and knowledge within data, predictive analytics then attempts to leverage that knowledge derived from data to anticipate meaning and make predictions about the future.

No one values this data as much as the domestic surveillance apparatus. The state knows it can use this ability to aggregate data and plot patterns to identify and label individuals it considers potential threats. This is precisely the purpose of the surveillance conducted on millions of innocent people by the NSA and others. The UK Ministry of Justice already openly admits to using IBM’s predictive software on its criminal population, to see which ones pose a greater threat to public safety upon release. IBM clearly plans to take this concept beyond its former domain of market researchers and scientists and apply it to where the big money is — state security and surveillance.

Deepak Advani, vice president of predictive analytics at IBM, said, “Predictive analytics gives government organizations worldwide, a highly-sophisticated and intelligent source to create safer communities by identifying, predicting, responding to and preventing criminal activities. It gives the criminal justice system the ability to draw upon the wealth of data available to detect patterns, make reliable projections and then take the appropriate action in real time to combat crime and protect citizens.”

However, the dragnet nature of this form of surveillance completely disregards the “probable cause” requirement of most western liberal democracies and makes every citizen a suspect and subordinates any standing Constitution into nothing more than a relic trumped by secret court orders and executive directives. The full spectrum of possible applications of this technology must be understood in order to avoid passively allowing government, law enforcement or business to use predictive analytics to train the neverblinking eye of government surveillance on everybody (as in the case with the NSA-Verizon operation and the PRISM program) thus creating a Minority Report-style dragnet.

After all, how exactly can we parse the differences between the Iranian police monitoring social media to crackdown on dissidents, the UK police monitoring social media as part of their policing of protests, Vodafone monitoring social media to get advance warning of UK Uncut protests and Vodafone monitoring social media to better understand their audience and increase sales?

Different ends, to be sure. But what does it mean that the same methods can be used for each? For each government / corporation, the overarching aim is the same: knowledge = power. Through greater knowledge, the better they believe they can control the actions of their consumer/citizenry/target.

And within this, the individual stands in the same relationship to power: asymmetric. As such, possibly the best defence against this ever growing and pervasive form of surveillance is to be aware of what kind of data you are providing (whether actively or passively). Who receives the data? What information does it contain? Can false or conflicting data be provided instead? Can data be encrypted, hidden, rerouted?

This new social paradigm will be unavoidable, to try and avoid it would mean a withdrawal from society altogether. As we try and build a better world to replace the increasingly rotten hulk of the old we must constantly remember that this is a social war. A war where everything we do has consequences, both seen and unseen. To try and operate without a clear understanding of this new paradigm is only likely to result in a clear case of ‘give ‘em enough rope’ for anyone not wise enough to wise up.

To place this in a better context here’s an extract from an interesting article from the Defence Intelligence Journal-

Similar to criminals, terrorists do not respect, in fact they frequently exploit, jurisdictional and national boundaries. Even within the United States, information integration across levels of government is limited at best. This so-called stove-piping has been criticized extensively, because it significantly compromises our efforts by duplicating resources and efforts, while limiting access to information resources across domains.

Discussion of Fourth-Generation Warfare started well before 9/11; however, the larger implications of this concept became a reality on that day. Fourth-Generation Warfare specifically addresses the likelihood of domestic, civilian targets and casualties;

“[t]he distinction between war and peace will be blurred to the vanishing point. It will be nonlinear, possibly to the point of having no definable battlefields or fronts. The distinction between ‘civilian’ and ‘military’ may disappear.”

The when, where, and how of warfare is changing, with an increased likelihood that battlefields and fronts will be domestic, a very powerful concept particularly when viewed from an information collection and analysis perspective. As the frontline in the war on terrorism moves into our own communities, the number of players, organizations and data collection methodologies has increased geometrically. Local law enforcement and citizens frequently will be the eyes and ears in the Fourth-Generation intelligence apparatus, with intelligence gathering being widely disseminated and the information being collected by an increasing number of methods and stored in a variety of forms.

Source:
– Defense Intelligence Journal; 13-1&2 (2005), 47-63
– Link: http://innovative-analytics.com/docs/BattlespaceAwarenessDIJ.pdf

The Dalek’s are coming!

The Knightscope K5 or K10 is, according to its website, an autonomous robot that will ‘predict and prevent crime’. In reality it’s a machine that roves around taking your picture and video without explicit consent, checks your licence plate and your phone communications, can overhear and record your conversations and has built-in behavioural analysis capabilities.

The K10 model is intended for vast open areas and on private roads, while the K5 robot is designed for more space-constrained environments. According to the website, its capabilities so far are:

1. Optical Character Recognition-Converts scanned images of alphanumeric text into machine-encoded text for comparison against a defined database or ‘Hot List’.

2. Omnidirectional Imaging- 360 degree high definition video capture.

3. Thermal imaging- Used to detect and measure minute temperature differences.

4. Microphones- High quality audio capture.

5. Air Quality- Monitors ambient air for a number of specified particulates.

6. Ultrasonic- Multiple detectors that measure speed and distances to surrounding objects.

7. Infrared- Uses the infrared light spectrum invisible to the human eye to provide video in low or no-light conditions.

8. Radar- Detection system that uses radio waves to determine the range, altitude, direction or speed of objects.

9. Lidar- Remote sensing technology that measures distance by illuminating a target with a laser and analysing the reflected light – provides accurate 3D mapping of the environment and specific objects.

The robot, which is 5 ft tall and weighs 300 lbs, is to be introduced in the US as a cheaper alternative to security guards and in response to the growing incidence of gun crime. However the K5, which is shaped like a 5-foot-tall bullet, has a hard enough time figuring out whether a human being has actually drawn a gun (the manufacturer states that it is easy to get false positives with children’s toy guns).

The K5 can set a path for itself around a designated area or operate to a pre-programmed template and can patrol 24/7 at 18mph. It charges itself when its batteries are low by rolling over a charging mat every so often during its patrols, and uploads video and other data it’s captured while charging. (Urgent video can be sent faster via cellular networks; The K5 has the ability to send 90 terabytes of data per year per unit). Certain people may be interested in trying to vandalize it, of course, but the K5 is covered in the same vandalproof plastic coating in wide use on public transport.

“We’ve got cameras on it, we’ve got sirens,” says Knightscope CEO Bill Santana Li. “If anyone’s getting too close, we can sound an ear-piercing screech.”

Cue lots of fun triggering alarms in densely packed public environments, fake texts and emails triggering responses and placing obstacles in the robots path. I’m sure you can think of more.

Company website : knightscope.com

*The Dalek’s are famous robots from outerspace who invade Earth in the fictional British television series ‘Doctor Who’ that had the catchphrase “Exterminate!”

Predictive Surveillance Technology Arrives

The company behind a new ‘smart’ street lighting system which is being rolled out in major US cities like Las Vegas admits that the technology has the capability of analysing voices and tracking people as well as hiding a surveillance camera in its seemingly innocuous design.

A page on the Intellistreets website (1) which highlights “benefits and applications” features a section on security wherein it is admitted that the hi-tech system includes “voice stress analysers,” amongst several other sophisticated sensors that “assist the DHS* in protecting its citizens and natural resources.”

The ability to record street conversations is merely one special feature of the Intellistreets lighting system, which is linked back to a central data hub via an omnipresent wi-fi connection. The ‘smart’ street lights can also act as surveillance cameras, make loudspeaker security announcements (‘See Something, Say Something’- similar to some existing UK loudhailer equipped CCTV), as well as track “RFID equipped staff,” which could be anybody given the increasing amount of clothing, products and official documents which are RFID tagged. The fact that the lights are all linked back to a central data hub via a wi-fi network also means they have the capability to track people via their mobile phone’s MAC address by scanning for both associated and unassociated device locations every 30 seconds by default. Using this method an individual device’s movements can easily be followed.

The company’s website highlights how the system is now being installed in areas of Las Vegas, Chicago, Detroit, Auburn Hills, Asbury Park, and at stadiums like the Mercedes Benz Superdome in New Orleans. These streetlights represent just one more component of a huge network of insidious nu-gen monitoring devices slowly being embedded in everything from buses to games consoles/TVs to gunshot detectors (2) that are beginning to blanket our streets and dominate our home life.

The next level of state surveillance, which will rely on systems like Intellistreets to record people’s conversations and detect antagonism or political extremism, will make the recent revelations of whistleblower Edward Snowden pale in comparison.

Systems like Intellistreets and the Knightscope K5 autonomous security robot represent the potential of the further normalisation and acceptance of large scale monitoring and surveillance techniques. Expect these devices to appear on UK/European high streets very soon.

* Department of Homeland Security

Links-
Intellistreets promo video
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bs8upeQymNM
(1) intellistreets.com/benefits.html
(2) nytimes.com/2012/05/29/us/shots-heardpinpointed-and-arguedover.html?pagewanted=all”

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Source: 325 magazine, issue 11